As we close to October, men and women have grow to be even much more sensitive when it comes to the truth. In the coming elections, exactly where is the October surprise going to be? How will the truth, or the buying of it rather, have an effect on it? In this episode, Bill Stierle and Tom get correct down to it. They speak about each and every of Joe Biden’s and Donald Trump’s camps, how they frame their messages, counteract them, and prepare for that October surprise. Plus, they also talk about the current rumor of Donald Trump getting presented the CEO position for Fox News. How will the truth be told in that predicament? Who can we trust? Bill and Tom answer these concerns and much more.
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Truth, The October Surprise, And Donald Trump As CEO For Fox News
Bill, we’re in the middle of convention season for the Democrats and the Republicans. There appears to be a lot of polls that are indicating that Joe Biden has a lead even beyond any margins of errors, if you think polls. I know a lot of men and women do not think polls. At this time of year right after conventions, there’s constantly a convention bounce for each and every candidate. Then factors returned to typical in terms of polling. There are a lot of ifs in this statement, if the voting program functions, if each vote is counted. There is not a main surprise Joe Biden is probably to win the election now. There’s constantly a danger of an October surprise. There are a lot of theories about this. Everyone is waiting for that October surprise. When is that shoe going to drop? We’ve had some in the previous.
The will need for truth and trust is so sensitive. Men and women are searching for stability with truth and trust. They’d rather go with a bias, some thing I’ve voted for in the previous, rather than say, “Let me stare that point down. Could that even be attainable? I trust this particular person, but does not this message appear like it is a small timely or out of spot?” As soon as you get the confused thoughts, the thoughts that is in the state of doubt, confused, skeptical, hesitant, the voter will default to the elephant brain or to the habit brain and will vote in that path. They’re waiting for that one particular small piece of proof that they place on their side like, “I’m going with this guy rather than this gal.” That is a small bit about what occurred with James Comey backtracking on, “We identified this other set of databases. We do not know, so we’re going to investigate this other point on Hillary’s e mail.” Immediately after the election, “I’m sorry, we didn’t uncover something.” It was like, “You do not know what you did. What you did is build the doubt and skepticism for the voter.”
That doubt and skepticism triggered the particular person to go like, “I’m not positive I do not want to vote for this particular person. I’m voting for this particular person for the reason that this particular person is claiming that they know the genuine answer. I’m going to take their self-confidence as truth.” Notice he does not sell truth. He sells self-confidence. He sells, “I know I’m wealthy. I know how to handle large cash.” All of the men and women about him know he does not know how to handle large cash. He does not know how to be mindful, turn a profit, build the worth that demands to be developed. He would compromise. He didn’t do any of these factors. The challenge when we get to the October surprise is that it is the one particular small grain of rice that gets moved more than to one particular side from a propaganda position that says, “Here’s the piece of proof that I will need.”
I watch advertisements and videos and factors on each sides. I watch each groups of men and women place out their messaging. I’m going like, “It’s a bunch of videos that are clipped collectively about Joe Biden.” “What occurred to Joe Biden? is one particular of the most current Republican videos. The answer is he’s older than he utilised to be. This is what occurred to Joe Biden, just like your guy. You are taking years of video footage from him and going like, “These are the small clip snippets.” If we want to edit the worst factors we say out, this is editing the worst factors in to build a message that is not totally correct about the particular person. It has a partial truth to it, but it is not totally correct for the reason that of the way the video has been edited.
The Democrats are guilty of the very same point with Donald Trump. They take his greatest worst hits and place them collectively and make him appear absurdly absurd. They all do that. I do not assume the age debate is going to land pretty properly. They’re each old. Joe Biden’s camp really should be placing out a video displaying him riding a bicycle, performing some physical exercising and Donald Trump gingerly stepping down the ramp at that military graduation, but they haven’t completed that surprisingly.
It could be an October surprise. It is the grain of sand principle. It is like, “I’m moving this small grain of sand more than right here for the reason that I’m going to tip the scale of the ten% of the voters.” They know they struggle with the men and women on something on the other side of moderate. Each sides struggle with that. We’re not going to get the men and women more than right here for the reason that their bias is deeply entrenched on the other side poor. They’re searching for proof of the other side poor as an alternative of going other side men and women. We’re men and women right here. They’re men and women there. What is their point of view once again? That is a vibrant democracy is these are men and women attempting to talk about hard problems. Let’s preserve our eye on the ball right here, but they cannot preserve their eye on the ball for the reason that their limbic brain, their elephant brain is saying, “I’m going with what I have invested in, loyal to and what I know not necessarily to what’s correct.”
Men and women are searching for stability with truth and trust. They’d rather go with a bias. Click To Tweet
That is the point that is also quite upsetting in this approach of factors as well. How do we take a appear at the propaganda messages and figure out exactly where the October surprise is going to be? Is it going to be a message like, “I have the vaccine, I got it from Russia. They are assisting us with this. It shows that we can function collectively with foreign nations?” There’s a third of the men and women that will quickly think him, no concerns asked, “I have a partnership with, I can function with.” There’s yet another third of the men and women going like, “What are you performing?” You are telling your third a message that is not in the wellbeing of America. It is also not in the wellbeing of truth for the reason that it is going to magically disappear just like all the other promises that you produced for us. It is the third and the middle that I’m scared about. It is like how a lot of them are going to go to, “Let’s take yet another likelihood on this guy?” How a lot of of them are going to go like, “I’m not taking yet another likelihood on this guy?”
How a lot of of them are going to take the bait? That is what it is, bait. It is attempting to win them back more than, “If you do not think I achieved almost everything I mentioned I was going to do the initially time, this is going to be some thing you are going to want to preserve me about for for the reason that with out me, you are not going to get this vaccine.” That is what he’s going to attempt to say.
“Joe Biden does not have a partnership with Vladimir Putin the way I have a partnership with Vladimir Putin. That is going to reduce off our probabilities of receiving the vaccine that we will need.” I can visualize some narrative that is related to that coming out. They’re going to appear at what are the factors that we’re going to fly out week-more than-week. This is a ground game. This is a block and tackle. To use the football metaphor, “I’m operating off tackling. You have got to see if you can cease me. By the way, I’m going to preserve pounding you with this message. You are weak on that side. I’m going to give yet another message and we’re going to pound on the other side with a new message.”
That would be a effective October surprise or a effective try at an October surprise. I could see Joe Biden and the Democrats counteracting that saying, “You can go get that vaccine from Russia, Donald Trump, but I’m going to function with our American pharmaceutical corporations right here in the United States and build the very best.” There’s a way you could make this about the unity of America and coming in. I could nevertheless see him producing that pitch, the October surprise, “I have a vaccine and it came from Russia.”
You set up a straw man that has some truth to it relating to voter fraud. The query is how a lot of truth does it have? Do distinct celebration members do factors on each sides of the aisle to attempt to exclude or not exclude votes and factors like that? Are there efforts that are getting taken spot in? That would be quite simple to say yes. There are specific laws, not getting adequate machines, receiving rid of machines, receiving rid of mailboxes. What you are performing is you are receiving rid of mailboxes. It is like, “How did somebody ever let that come about?” Somebody was told to choose up all these mailboxes, “You cannot vote by mail for the reason that you are placing it in. That signifies you have to come to the post workplace and then we’re going to understaff them so they have no time to approach it.”
All of a sudden, we’re dismantling the infrastructure and this is what deregulation does. It is like, “We want to take it apart.” This is the 1980s business enterprise garage sale stuff. It is like how this business is vested like, “Let’s break it apart and sell it into pieces. We can make a lot of cash for the reason that we ruined everybody’s lives and the enterprises are not viable any longer. We alluded to their pension fund.” These distinct messages are that, “I’ve got this handled. Here’s how I’m handling it.” Meanwhile, what’s going on is that there is not a robust narrative about how to function as a nation to reside to the worth of one particular particular person, one particular vote. Let’s suppose one particular of an October surprise could be, “I am going to get rid of the point that I’ve been speaking most about. I’m going to figure out how to deal. I have the answer. I have fantastic men and women. I have fantastic technologies. I’m going to resolve the voter fraud dilemma. Is there a dilemma or is it a dilemma dilemma? How large is it? What scale does it match?”
The reality that perhaps there is not a lot of a dilemma would make it an simple dilemma for him to resolve. If he labels it and owns it that he solved it, that is fantastic. It hurts him if he does not win the election if he solved voter fraud. If he wins the election legitimately, then he claims that Monday morning quarterback hero position of getting solved it. If he loses, then he labels the program as tainted and broken. The Democrats killed it and we cannot trust it. He demands to be capable to cast doubt on the voter program if he loses.
“What is my winning narrative so that I am displaying self-confidence and strength?” That self-confidence and strength is the piece of rice I preserve moving across. Each and every message that he does is not about truth. It is about moving the rice more than to the other side of the scale. Each and every time we’re on this, you take the bait. You go, “Yeah, but how about the reality?” I’m like, “We’re not moving information right here. It does not matter.” You and I can regularly notice the message is the rice that is moved onto one particular side of the scale. The vote and the race tighten for the reason that it is the particular person moving the rice messages more than to the kind of ability to tilt the person’s belief structure in the path they want. That becomes intriguing or vibrant.
The message moves some men and women of that middle third more than to his camp to vote for him. The information do not pull them back.
All the voter demands to do to get their vote is to acknowledge one particular point that political leader did for them. Even if they did ten factors that have been against them, they will anchor on the one particular point. It is significant when you take a appear at communication, beliefs and biases is that if we appear at the one particular point that tends to make a large distinction, it is what beneficial to me as a particular person, as a human getting. What will need is that meeting of mine? It meets my will need for integrity or truth or trust, or it meets my will need for assistance or fairness. If all I got to do is place 1 or two of these factors and say, “At least he did this,” it is the very same point with all the distinct candidates. We’re getting pretty agnostic right here. It is like this particular person is voting towards the point that it appears like this particular person is confident about this point. Meanwhile, there could possibly be whole wreckage that a point has triggered. Even to the particular person that believes there is not a wreckage piece to it. They’re not necessarily seeing the pros and cons.
The particular person that is producing the choice with the self-confidence, “I produced my very best work. This is what I did for us. This is why we’re superior off.” That is why it does not matter what celebration of what president goes out and does a speaking tour. There will be lots of men and women in the stadium when the stadiums open up. There are lots of men and women there to hear them speak for the reason that they’re listening for the reassuring and reinforcing of the message that they voted for, that they’re loyal to in the previous. It is pretty intriguing and difficult. Could the October surprise be that Joe Biden comes on stage and he introduces all the former presidents and invites them to say a word to all the former presidents, all of them come up and say some thing? That requires that middle third. It does not move the other third. The 35% is going to remain exactly where it is. The 33% stays exactly where it is. It requires that middle third and goes, “Wait a minute.” The ones that are closer to the other side, that brings it into the 49th percentile. It is like how a lot does it creep more than to the other side and to see what it appears like?
There’s yet another prospective October surprise that has a distinct influence, not a standard one particular. We’re hearing that Fox News has behind the scenes produced an supply to Donald Trump to be the CEO of Fox News. Here’s the reality. We all know Donald Trump didn’t count on to be president in the initially spot. He’s pretty frustrated with the everyday briefings and getting a leader. He desires it completed his way. He hasn’t grown into the job. I do not assume he desires to be there. If he gets to be the arbiter of what is fake news and what’s genuine news in his thoughts, he would almost certainly get pleasure from that a complete lot much more. He’d be in the limelight all the time once again, but in a way that he can manage it.
He buys out Rupert Murdoch. He becomes the CEO of Fox. He provides these messages for the way he would like the truth to be told, the way he would like the messages to be crafted and moved. He’s going to remain with the messages that function. He is a tester and an evaluator of his performances. He watches his stuff and sees what lands, what does not land, what gets applause, what does not get applause, what moves, what does not move, how can I reinforce this, then he moves to the subsequent message. Each and every human getting communicates like they’re throwing spaghetti on the wall. You and I are throwing spaghetti on the wall in a distinct way. We like to meet the will need for integrity or trust and bring our very best belief structures forward. A lot of instances, we do not have all the complete information and facts and distinct pieces of information and facts show up.
Each and every human getting demands an supplying. Each and every human getting demands a spot to transition. Click To Tweet
Donald Trump’s subsequent job, is it going to be the CEO of Fox News or does he go back to the life that he was? I’m not positive if it is going to be really as thrilling as it was as soon as was in that position. The men and women calling him to do factors that are as engaged as The Apprentice or some of these other factors in the future. There are possibilities, but each human getting demands an off-ramp. Each and every human getting demands a spot to transition, “Here’s my identity right here and here’s my identity more than right here.” Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton are in the very same spot this way. They’re either transitioning into this or they’re transitioning more than there. Hillary Clinton didn’t assume that for 4 years, she would be punching the clock at property getting a grandma. She didn’t assume that was going to be her job. She knew the other job was going to be her job for the reason that that was her profession. That was what she constructed her resume about all the distinct factors she did in these resume spots, a Senator in New York, Secretary of State.
When you assume about it, the Fox News job supply for Donald Trump tends to make a lot of sense if you are him. The Coronavirus is a curveball he got thrown that he never ever anticipated getting to deal with. It took away all the wind in his sails of the robust economy. All these factors that he would be riding a lot much more very easily to re-election. I could see him pretty very easily saying, “That’s okay. Even although the election was rigged and I lost it, I do not want it anyway. I’m going to go on and make a distinction right here at Fox News.” I enjoy to see a person in the press corps asked him about the job supply. Whilst he will not confirm it, you know that his ego cannot remain away from the light. He’s almost certainly going to say, “They really should want me to be CEO. Everyone is saying I would be fantastic at it.” It will meet his will need for self-worth so a lot. It would be fantastic if a person in the press corps asked him that query to confirm, “Is it correct that you had been presented the CEO position at Fox News?”
Simply because of the partnership, “You have a robust partnership with all the distinct men and women more than there. You have met with them, interviewed them, helped them with their careers. Here’s the subsequent step for you. Are you going to take that step if for some purpose you do not win the election? For what ever purpose, will you take that job?” The query is that will he either say, “No, that is a rumor. I’m staying exactly where I am,” or will his self-worth, respect and his ego say, “Yeah. I could very easily do that job. I’m a pretty clever guy. I can do these types of factors.”
It would be an intriguing off-ramp for him to take language-sensible for the reason that if he does not want to be there, he now has his out. He has his respectful step. Even if he does not get it, he nevertheless has his, “I’m going to fight the battle of fake news. The way to fight the battle fake news is to be in charge of genuine news. These are the genuine news men and women. I’m going to be on their side. They like me and they want me to be there with them. These are my colleagues. They all like me more than there. I could possibly as properly function with men and women I like and offer leadership, wisdom, speaking points to them and give them guidance on what the genuine news is.” It would be an intriguing shift to take spot. The press corps asking that query would be an significant query for the reason that it is like, “What are you going to do right after? The polls are like this and you are speaking about voter fraud like this. If you do not win, does this job supply look intriguing to you?” Let’s see if that is the way he can preserve his will need for respect and make his transition in a way that is graceful.
If a particular person does not have a respectful transition to go to, they have a tendency to get stuck on hanging on to factors. That tends not to go so properly for the reason that all factors will need to transition. All factors will need to alter hands. It is like what a distinction. This is one particular way to build some ease and build some chance for the person’s message. We do have a messaging propaganda dilemma. Any message that comes out has to be faced and dealt with. Even a no response is solely a yes response. “No, I haven’t heard something about that.” All of a sudden, it is like, “Would you be interested?” His answer is, “I am committed to getting the president of the United States.” I can never ever visualize him saying that.
I cannot visualize him saying that either for the reason that I do not assume his heart is there. He would a lot rather be on Television at Fox News or be in charge of it and assist guide that ship. He would like that a complete lot much more. I do not assume he’s disciplined adequate to deny it, not speak about it and not speculate. He constantly says, “We’ll see what takes place.” He constantly injects that uncertainty.
He does, and that tends to make it much more enticing. It tends to make it much more significant as an alternative of the straight turn down. A turndown, there’s a double-edged sword to it. It meets a will need for truth, but it also dampens or eliminates dopamine. It is the renowned John McCain and the lady coming on the point that says, “He’s a Muslim.” He’s like, “No, he’s not.” He’s meeting the will need for truth, but it is dampening the belief structure that a person else’s faith, the enthusiasm that John McCain was going to save us from a Muslim.
If John McCain had not denied it and let it hang out there, not embraced it necessarily or perpetuated, he could possibly have won that election. That was a large moment in that election. That was a surprise of sadly McCain’s personal producing that didn’t assist him. I respect him for the reason that he had integrity. I respect him as an person. I want he have been president as an alternative of Donald Trump. These are effective moments in an election. If this story gets the light of day and somebody does asks President Donald Trump or they do not ask him, somebody is going to will need to ask Fox News leadership, “Is there any truth to it?” They’re going to have to make some statements right here at some point.
They’re going to will need to make a statement, “No, we didn’t supply him something. There was no supply discussion.” Meanwhile, we do not know if there’s any supply discussion going on. That is exactly where the uncertainty of the discussion goes on. These are the factors that begin in our element of the grain of rice narrative about leadership is not committed. As soon as we get a sense that leadership is not committed, then all of a sudden, “Leadership is not committed,” can be an open narrative. It will be intriguing. This is a communication show. Messaging about how specific messages have an effect on our physiology and permit us to make choices has some predictability to it. The uncertainty has to do with that men and women do not know how to use the predictability. It is like, “Is this an integrity concern or is this a fairness concern?” These two factors can be pretty distinct. It appears like we got some stuff to do right here about this.
It will be pretty intriguing as we go via September and into October to see what surprises do take place. As they do at the time, we’re going to want to speak about these in a pretty timely manner pretty speedily and have some discussions about them, how the messages have been place out and then how you could possibly counteract that message if you could or what the influence is. That will be pretty intriguing to watch.
It will be the flooding of messaging to then the confusion exactly where truth is to be identified. That is placing a lot of grains of rice about and not positive which one particular is the one particular that you will need. Exactly where is that point of information or information and facts? How can we build a small bit of wisdom or a small bit of insight out of it? That is a important element of the equation as well. Additional to come on this, Tom. I’m searching forward to the subsequent point. We’ll have a lot of factors to speak about subsequent time even from the spot of the wrap up of the Democratic convention. We can take a appear at as who got messages of truth to stick and who didn’t. There are some messages that did stick, some didn’t and some have been taking out of context. We can take a appear at that as well. That is valuable.
Perhaps also to appear at some of the rebuttals to some of the messages for the reason that what we’ve observed is the president is not staying away from commenting on these factors. He’s employing his Twitter platform to attempt to rebut or make his personal counter-message stick. We really should take a peek at that as well.
That makes it possible for us to assist to see exactly where the dopamine is moving and exactly where the loyalty shifts and how a person’s bias gets activated and then captured. Additional to come. Tom, thanks a lot.